Archive for June, 2015

What To Do

 What To Do
I’m in a cash game at Carbon and I catch AA twice and KK once within one hour and all 3 times I’m UTG. Do I limp with those hands in that position just to get callers, or do I go all in hoping I’ll get a call, or do like I did and 3 bet? I did 3 bet and got no callers on any of the 3. Man I hate hands like that in that position.

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$200 NLHE Full Ring: live casino $1/3, QQ facing 3 bet and 5 behind. Shove/fold?

 $200 NLHE Full Ring: live casino $1/3, QQ facing 3 bet and 5 behind. Shove/fold?
warning: this is a very in-depth post and I only recommend you read it if you know a thing or two about probability. This was a hand I experienced last night at my local casino. I want answers to focus around the math I have presented to see if there are holes in it anywhere (or my assumptions for the math), as my gut still says this is a fold, but the math says otherwise.

Important information to note: x4-x5 bb has been the standard pre flop raise at the table all night (which sucked btw). See the attachment for a visual of the hand. players 1. and 2. had me covered, player 3 had ~$ 190 before the hand. Player 1 is tight, passive. I would assign his PFR ~ 5. player 2 is a regular, and is loose, fishy, but his 3 bet range in early position is all but JJ+ (maybe AKs, but we are discounting this for argument’s sake). Player 3 is LAG, and has been known to cold call large raises with marginal hands. My image at the table over 3 hours was tight. If I shove they will give me cred for a premium hand.

Looking at the attachment, you will take note that there is already $ 99 in the pot once it is my turn to act. There are 5 players behind me yet to act, and player 1 might re-raise. For these reasons, I decide I will either shove or fold. I know player 2 fairly well, and know he will not call my shove with anything but KK or AA, and I am confident that is true for player 1 as well. Player 3 is much more likely to call me with a worse pocket pair.

If we assume player 1 and 2 (as well as the people yet to act) will fold anything worse than AA or KK, and will call otherwise (reasonable assumptions might I add), then the probability that anyone of the 5 players behind me yet to act were dealt KK or AA is (2/221)*5, or 4.5%. The probability that player 1, with a PFR of 5%, raised with KK or AA is 13.1% (8 combinations for Aces and Kings, 17 combinations for 88-QQ, and 36 combinations for AJs, AQo, AKo, thus 8/61 = .131). Finally, the probability that player 2 3-bet with AA or KK is 61.5%(8/13 combinations).

Each of these probabilities are independent of each other, thus, the probability that neither the 5 people behind me were dealt KK/AA, player 1 didn’t raise with AA/KK, and player 2 didn’t 3bet with AA/KK is as follows:

(1-.615)*(1-.131)*(1-.045) = .32, or 32% chance I will take down the pot uncontested.

Thus, .32($ 330) + .68(.18($ 560) + .81($ -230)) = $ 105.6 + .68($ -85.5) = +$ 47.46.

The above equation explained: a 32% i will take down the pot uncontested and win $ 330. Add that to a 68% chance that I don’t – now I am a 4.5:1 dog against KK or AA, but I can still suck out, and do, 18% of the time, and take down $ 560. The other 81% of the time I lose my $ 230 stack. Yet, if I did everything correctly, This still seems to be a +EV play.

thoughts, comments, questions? I would appreciate input if possible.

Attached Images
poker hand 6-27-15.jpg (30.5 KB)

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How to handle a Full House on flop

 How to handle a Full House on flop
How is the best way to handle a full house on flop if you are on button, the pot is low and everyone elses checked ?

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chasing then bluffing

 chasing then bluffing
like to know if you guys do this say you have in holes cards (suited or consective cards) such as say 9 10 and want to see flop then have 2 say 8 jack or 2 spades so now chasing straight or flush then make 30% bet trying to get rid of a couple people (always works) but 2 stay in then don’t get nothing on next hand but still have a bunch of outs so hit it again with bigger bet (BLUFFIN OF COURSE) hoping the rest will fold but that dosnt happen so now committed and the river dosnt help now DO YOU KEEP BLUFFING OR FOLD:eek:

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Full Flush Ante Tournaments

 Full Flush Ante Tournaments
Not sure if you all know but Full Flush has a new line up of ante tourneys and have extended their tournaments. Really good player field. The antes are great because:) it gets out the donks

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