Posts Tagged ‘Behind’

France, Portugal, Spain Eyeing Early 2018 for Shared Liquidity, Italy Trails Behind

 France, Portugal, Spain Eyeing Early 2018 for Shared Liquidity, Italy Trails Behind

In July, France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain agreed to merge their online poker player liquidity finally doing something positive for poker players after years of each country being ring-fenced from the world. It now appears that Italy may be lagging in its ramp up toward shared player pools and the other countries may start without it.

We don’t know why the four countries decided to separate their players from each other and the rest of world, though one might guess it was something to do with lawmakers thinking their regulations are superior to everyone else’s, so letting players from other countries play in their market would…I don’t know. Whatever.

When the four countries signed their agreement in July, they issued a brief statement:

The 6th of July the French, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian online gambling regulatory authorities signed an agreement concerning online poker liquidity sharing.

This agreement aims at improving cooperation and information exchanges among the authorities to allow the liquidity sharing between licensed online poker operators, fighting the illegal market and fraud, guaranteeing player protection and the respect of the anti-money laundering prescriptions.

The concrete implementation of the sharing will depend on the regulatory requirements of each jurisdiction.

The authorities commit to make their best efforts to enable effective implementation by the end of the year.

As you can see from that last sentence, it was hoped that player pools would merge by the end of this year, but that isn’t going to happen. It now looks like early 2018 is when the borders will open, but it very well may be without Italy for a while.

The problem, according to CasinoNewsDaily.com, is that Italy has not even opened the license bidding process yet. Neither operators seeking to renew their licenses nor those looking to finally gain entry to the Italian online poker market have been able to submit bids and there is no way the process will be completed in time for early 2018 launch. The application process was expected to have opened in September.

Italian poker news site AssoPoker reported that ARJEL, France’s gambling regulatory agency, is definitely pointing at early next year as the target for shared liquidity and that ARJEL president Charles Coppolani has been reaching out to his counterparts in the other countries to see where they stand.

Reports say that France and Spain may launch shared liquidity together first and then Portugal would follow close behind. Italy would hopefully come onboard sooner rather than later, but it needs to get its house in order first.

As one might expect, PokerStars will be involved. In a recent earnings call, Financial Director Brian Kyle said that the world’s largest online poker room plans on being one of the shared liquidity operators. It is currently the only online poker operator that is licensed in all four countries.

The post France, Portugal, Spain Eyeing Early 2018 for Shared Liquidity, Italy Trails Behind appeared first on Poker News Daily.

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Marti Roca De Torres Comes from Behind to Earn WSOP-E Championship Event Title

 Marti Roca De Torres Comes from Behind to Earn WSOP E Championship Event Title

After an epic 14-hour battle in which he fought from an extremely disadvantageous position, Marti Roca De Torres was able to come back and defeat Gianluca Speranza to win the 2017 World Series of Poker Europe Championship Event bracelet.

The six players coming back on Friday to determine the championship ran the gamut of poker experience. Chip leader Maria Ho (7.83 million) was riding a hot streak as the leader for the last two days and arguably was one of the most experienced players on the felt. Roca De Torres was right behind her, however, with his 7.26 million stack but not the same wealth of experience. After them, the contenders were few as Gianluca Speranza (4.4 million), WSOP bracelet winner Niall Farrell (3.025 million), Mathijs Jonkers (2.785 million) and Robert Bickley (1.085 million) rounded out the table.

Roca De Torres came out of the stall firing and it nearly got him in trouble. He would double up Bickley on the first hand of action, but that would be a momentary setback. Roca De Torres won four consecutive hands, with the last one battling against Ho’s first action of the day, to slip into the lead by a mere 5000 chips. Roca De Torres extended that lead on Hand 76 when, with pocket Queens, he got Ho to bet on the flop and turn (he called) after he had hit a set on the flop and Ho hit top pair with her K-Q off suit.

It was the beginning of the end for Ho. After a Farrell raise to 275K, Ho asked for a chip count (3.255 million) and then moved all in with her leading stack. Farrell immediately called, tabling pocket Jacks, while Ho could only roll over pocket deuces for the fight. An Ace high board didn’t change anything and, for the first time in two days, Ho was the short stack on the table and Farrell was challenging Roca De Torres for the lead.

Down to her last 1.26 million ten hands after clashing with Farrell, Ho moved her stack into the center and Roca De Torres, in the small blind, only called her all in. Farrell asked for a count of Roca De Torres’ chips (and learning that Roca De Torres’ had more) before moving all in over the top of Ho’s all in. Roca De Torres didn’t hesitate at all in making the call, slapping his cards on the felt triumphantly:

Ho: A-J off suit
Farrell:  pocket Kings
Roca De Torres:  pocket Aces

With Farrell drawing thin and Ho drawing virtually to air, the nine-high board didn’t come close to giving anyone other than Roca De Torres anything. Because she started the hand with the least chips, Ho was dismissed in sixth place while Farrell was bounced in fifth place as Roca De Torres took a massive lead.

Holding more than twice the number of chips than his other three competitors combined, Roca De Torres (17.48 million) looked to be in total command over Speranza (3.45 million), Bickley (3.035 million), and Jonkers (2.47 million). As it turned out, the tournament was barely getting started as the four men battled for almost six hours before the next departure occurred.

The chip stacks were quite fluent during this time, with Roca De Torres trying to eliminate his opposition but doubling them up more than he would like. He would lose the lead to first Speranza and then Bickley, who would double on SEVEN different occasions to take over the lead. Jonkers was about the only player who didn’t hold the lead, but he was able to stay vibrant in the tournament through a judicious use of the all-in move himself. In fact, it was Jonkers who would deliver the knockout that found the fourth-place finisher.

With the blinds and antes whipping around four handed, Bickley made a move all in out of the small blind, but Jonkers wasn’t going anywhere in making the call. Bickley had been caught, sheepishly showing his 3-2, while Jonkers was dominant with his A 7. The Q-10-9-2-9 not only didn’t help Bickley any, the three spades that were there improved Jonkers to the nut flush and sent Bickley out of the King’s Casino in fourth place.

Even after the knockout, Jonkers and Roca De Torres were still way behind Speranza. That chip discrepancy got even greater after Speranza, on Hand 194, bumped off Jonkers in third place after turning am unnecessary spade nut flush against a pair for Jonkers. As Speranza and Roca De Torres settled in for the heads-up match, Speranza held a more than 3:1 lead (19.95 million to 6.5 million).

Roca De Torres tried to come out aggressively from the start of heads up, but it almost worked against him. 15 hands into the battle, Speranza’s lead was almost 4:1 (22.05 million to 4.4 million) and it seemed that the tournament was firmly in Speranza’s hand. But just as they were sounding the last rites for Roca De Torres, he rose from the grave.

Building his stack with small victories, Roca De Torres would take over the lead on Hand 226 when he called a Speranza all-in bluff on the river. Although Speranza took the lead back only nine hands later, it seemed that bluff catch by Roca De Torres served to inspire him. He would continuously shove on the Italian and gradually grinded his way back into a competitive situation.

When the end came, it was stunningly fast. First, on Hand 269, Roca De Torres moved all in against and Speranza made the call. It was a race situation, Roca De Torres’ pocket fives up against Speranza’s A-J off suit, and the race got closer when Speranza spiked on the A-9-3 rainbow flop. That race ended, however, when a five hit on the turn to give Roca De Torres an unbeatable set and the hand. Left with only 775K after the chips were counted, Speranza sent them to the center on Hand 270 with a 10-8 off suit against Roca De Torres’ Q-5. No eight was found on the K-5-4-A-3 board, earning the title for Roca De Torres in an inspired run.

1. Marti Roca De Torres, €1,115,207
2. Gianluca Speranza, €689,246
3. Mathijs Jonkers, €476,585
4. Robert Bickley, €335,089
5. Niall Farrell, €239,639
6. Maria Ho, €174,365
7. Jack Salter, €129,121*
8. Luis Rodriguez, €97,344*

(* – eliminated on Thursday, part of official final table)

The post Marti Roca De Torres Comes from Behind to Earn WSOP-E Championship Event Title appeared first on Poker News Daily.

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Niall Farrell Comes From Behind to Win EPT Malta Main Event; Byron Kaverman Scores in High Roller

 Niall Farrell Comes From Behind to Win EPT Malta Main Event; Byron Kaverman Scores in High Roller

In a battle that lasted over four hours, the United Kingdom’s Niall Farrell battled through a difficult final table to take down his first major championship at the European Poker Tour’s stop at the Portomaso Casino in Malta. As Farrell was taking home his title, the United States’ Byron Kaverman was putting another notch in his belt for 2015 in winning the €10,000 High Roller championship.

EPT Malta Main Event

Six men came back on Saturday to take part in the final table festivities (Daniel Dvoress and Nabil Cardoso, eliminated in seventh and eighth places respectively on Friday, will earn credit for an EPT final table finish) with Alen Bilic holding about a 2.5 million chip lead over Farrell. The rest of the field – Jaroslaw Sikora (2.455 million), Sam Greenwood (1.605 million) Rainer Kempe (1.515 million) and Giulio Spampinato (1.18 million) – had their work cut out for them if they were to get back into the match.

Farrell would establish himself as the chip leader only 19 hands into the day’s play. Raising the pot up to 125K, Farrell saw Greenwood move all in out of the big blind and was sitting on a tough decision. With some chips to play with – and the chance to take down a difficult opponent – Farrell decided to make the call. His A 7 might not have been the best calling cards you would think of, but it was better than the K♠ J♠ that Greenwood put on the felt. The situation got worse for Greenwood on the 2-8-2 flop with two diamonds, but it was the Ace on the turn that left him drawing dead. After the formalities of a river card, Greenwood was out in sixth place as Farrell took over the lead.

If his knockout of Greenwood was with bad cards, his next elimination would be with the best of it. Once again raising the action, Farrell saw Kempe three bet him out of the cutoff to 300K. Farrell decided that the all in move was appropriate here and it proved to be correct as Kempe immediately made the call. Kempe unfortunately had run into a cooler; his pocket Queens were dwarfed by Farrell’s pocket Aces and, once the board rolled King high, he was gone from the tournament, duplicating his performance from the EPT Barcelona that kicked off Season 12 of the EPT back in August.

Spampinato, who had come in on the short stack, couldn’t delay the inevitable as his stack dwindled. He got his final chips in the center with an A-8 offsuit, but Bilic would wake up in the big blind with pocket tens and made the call. There was a five on the flop (5-6-6) and an eight on the turn to open more options, but the four on the river sealed the fate of Spampinato in fourth place as Bilic reassumed the lead in the tournament.

Only two hands later, the tournament was down to heads up. On Hand 32, Sikora limped in and Farrell, in the big blind, pushed the short stack around with a raise from the big blind. Sikora was undaunted, however, pushing back with an all-in three bet that Farrell immediately called. Sikora’s A-10 was nice, but it shrank in comparison to Farrell’s A-J. After the board ran out and didn’t connect with either man, Farrell took down the hand and eliminated Sikora in third place.

With both players very close in chips, they decided to chop up the remaining money. Under the deal, Farrell took home €444,300 for his efforts and Bilic was happy with his €440,000. The EPT Malta trophy and €90,000 were left on the table and the duo fought tooth and nail for the final prizes.

How hard was the fight? Farrell and Bilic battled for 68 hands – more than double what the first four eliminations had taken – before the penultimate hand was dealt. Off the button, Bilic pushed the action with a raise and Farrell made the call from the big blind. After an A-7-6 flop, Farrell would check-call another bet out of Bilic and, after a five came on the turn, Farrell check-called again. When a Queen came on the river, Bilic moved all in and, after some deliberation, Farrell made the call. All Bilic could show was an 8-2 for complete air as Farrell tabled 6-5 for two pair and the championship.

1. Niall Farrell, €534,300*
2. Alen Bilic, €440,000*
3. Jaroslaw Sikora, €265,840
4. Giulio Spampinato, €203,840
5. Rainer Kempe, €161,340
6. Sam Greenwood, €125,660
7. Daniel Dvoress, €91,550
8. Nabil Cardoso, €62,570

(* – reflects final table deal)

€10,000 High Roller

Continuing what has been a breakout season, Byron Kaverman added another six-figure score to his tournament resume in taking down the €10,000 High Roller event at the EPT Malta.

201 entries were recorded for the €10,000 High Roller event and, by Saturday, only 19 players remained in the tournament. Mukul Pahuja was in the lead with Kaverman in pursuit, but there were dangers at every turn. Within the first two hours of play, the 19 players had become 11 and Kaverman had moved into the lead as the only player over two million in chips. Once Dominik Nitsche was eliminated in ninth place by Mikalai Vaskaboinikau, the final table was set.

Pahuja wasn’t pleased about losing the lead and he took on the task of retaking his lead with a vengeance. Pahuja knocked off 2015 World Series of Poker Europe Championship Event winner Kevin MacPhee in eighth place to go over three million in chips and push Kaverman back down to second. He continued to rule the roost as he bumped off Roberto Romanello before Vaskaboinikau eliminated Vladimir Dobrovolskiy in fifth place to bring the tournament to four handed action.

Ihar Soika was the first to leave the quartet, Pahuja holding a better two pair than Soika did, and after Pahuja took down Vaskaboinikau, it looked like the tournament was Pahuja’s to win. Holding a nearly 4:1 lead over Kaverman, Pahuja looked to knock him out early in heads up play. Instead of killing him with his A-5, Pahuja instead gave more ammunition to Kaverman and his A-K after it ran out with a King on the turn. They would fight for more than a half-hour before a change in fortune came about.

After a Pahuja raise, Kaverman made the call and saw a 5-6-3 rainbow flop. Kaverman would check-raise Pahuja’s 125K flop bet, making it 550K, and Pahuja made the call. An eight on the turn brought a bet from Kaverman this time and another call from Pahuja, but the Jack on the river set off the fireworks. With a potential flush on the board, Kaverman moved all in and was able to get a call out of Pahuja. Pahuja’s pocket Aces were strong, but they weren’t strong enough to beat Kaverman’s 9-7 (turned straight) as Kaverman used the double up to take over the lead.

Having the Aces cracked took the fight out of Pahuja. Only a few hands later, Pahuja would call a Kaverman all in, tabling A-4 for his tournament life against Kaverman’s pocket fives. The board would run out 9-2-8-J-6, delivering no Ace for Pahuja and earning Kaverman another big victory.

1. Byron Kaverman, €430,800
2. Mukul Pahuja, €290,100
3. Mikalai Vaskaboinikau, €204,500
4. Ihar Soika, €165,800
5. Vladimir Dobrovolskiy, €131,180
6. Roberto Romanello, €99,620
7. Bryn Kenney, €72,730
8. Kevin MacPhee, €53,150

Kaverman’s victory pushes him over the $ 3 million mark in earnings for 2015, but the money is only an extra. Kaverman has been able to take down a WSOP bracelet this year and, with the EPT High Roller title, has earned 10 six-figure wins in 2015. This latest victory also may move Kaverman into contention in many of the Player of the Year races in the tournament poker world.

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$200 NLHE Full Ring: live casino $1/3, QQ facing 3 bet and 5 behind. Shove/fold?

 $200 NLHE Full Ring: live casino $1/3, QQ facing 3 bet and 5 behind. Shove/fold?
warning: this is a very in-depth post and I only recommend you read it if you know a thing or two about probability. This was a hand I experienced last night at my local casino. I want answers to focus around the math I have presented to see if there are holes in it anywhere (or my assumptions for the math), as my gut still says this is a fold, but the math says otherwise.

Important information to note: x4-x5 bb has been the standard pre flop raise at the table all night (which sucked btw). See the attachment for a visual of the hand. players 1. and 2. had me covered, player 3 had ~$ 190 before the hand. Player 1 is tight, passive. I would assign his PFR ~ 5. player 2 is a regular, and is loose, fishy, but his 3 bet range in early position is all but JJ+ (maybe AKs, but we are discounting this for argument’s sake). Player 3 is LAG, and has been known to cold call large raises with marginal hands. My image at the table over 3 hours was tight. If I shove they will give me cred for a premium hand.

Looking at the attachment, you will take note that there is already $ 99 in the pot once it is my turn to act. There are 5 players behind me yet to act, and player 1 might re-raise. For these reasons, I decide I will either shove or fold. I know player 2 fairly well, and know he will not call my shove with anything but KK or AA, and I am confident that is true for player 1 as well. Player 3 is much more likely to call me with a worse pocket pair.

If we assume player 1 and 2 (as well as the people yet to act) will fold anything worse than AA or KK, and will call otherwise (reasonable assumptions might I add), then the probability that anyone of the 5 players behind me yet to act were dealt KK or AA is (2/221)*5, or 4.5%. The probability that player 1, with a PFR of 5%, raised with KK or AA is 13.1% (8 combinations for Aces and Kings, 17 combinations for 88-QQ, and 36 combinations for AJs, AQo, AKo, thus 8/61 = .131). Finally, the probability that player 2 3-bet with AA or KK is 61.5%(8/13 combinations).

Each of these probabilities are independent of each other, thus, the probability that neither the 5 people behind me were dealt KK/AA, player 1 didn’t raise with AA/KK, and player 2 didn’t 3bet with AA/KK is as follows:

(1-.615)*(1-.131)*(1-.045) = .32, or 32% chance I will take down the pot uncontested.

Thus, .32($ 330) + .68(.18($ 560) + .81($ -230)) = $ 105.6 + .68($ -85.5) = +$ 47.46.

The above equation explained: a 32% i will take down the pot uncontested and win $ 330. Add that to a 68% chance that I don’t – now I am a 4.5:1 dog against KK or AA, but I can still suck out, and do, 18% of the time, and take down $ 560. The other 81% of the time I lose my $ 230 stack. Yet, if I did everything correctly, This still seems to be a +EV play.

thoughts, comments, questions? I would appreciate input if possible.

Attached Images
poker hand 6-27-15.jpg (30.5 KB)

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